Gokhran may have enough palladium for exports in 2012, but what of 2013?
By Rhona O’Connell
A Russian Finance Ministry official has reportedly said that the State repository has sufficient palladium stocks to continue to export in 2012, while it is also looking to upgrade some of its existing material (Gokhran has sufficient palladium to continue exports in 2012 – report).
In their authoritative reviews released last month, both Johnson Matthey and GFMS addressed this issue and the two houses are of similar views with respect to the outlook on this issue. JM and GFMS employ different methodologies in their analyses of the PGM markets and how they present the market balance. The former assesses purchases and sales, while GFMS looks at overall supply and demand and so the shifts in inventories are treated slightly differently, but the overall shapes of the markets are similar. JM’s latest annual study, “Platinum 2011″ estimates that the palladium market was in an overall deficit of 490,000 ounces last year, equivalent to approximately 2.6 weeks’ global industrial demand for the metal in 2010. This includes the company’s estimate of a million ounces of stocks sales from Russia. Without this metal, therefore, on JM’s methodology the palladium market would have been in a deficit of 1.49 million ounces or eight weeks’ global demand.